Non-renewable Energy Sources
By Kenton Shepard
85% of the energy used in the world today is produced using non-renewable energy sources. This percentage is forecast to remain the same through 2030 unless something changes drastically such as the widespread enactment of legislation, breakthroughs in energy technology or the development of abundant, inexpensive new energy sources.
Non-renewable fuels are also known as “fossil fuels” because they are the fossilized remains of plants and animals which died up to 300 million years ago and became buried beneath the surface of the earth and the ocean floors. Time, pressure and heat transformed this material into hydrocarbons which we burn to extract energy.
We will never run out of fossil fuels, but at some point, the cost of recovering a fuel, say a barrel of oil, will exceed the profits to be made from selling that barrel of oil. At that point we will lose that fuel as an energy source. The big question is “How soon will this happen?”.
Statistics given below are from the US Energy Information Administration and are for rough comparison only.
OIL
Provides 40% of total US energy consumption
Oil Basics
World Proved Oil Reserves 2007 1,327 Billion barrels
World Petroleum Consumption 2005 84 million barrels/day
World Petroleum Consumption 2030 118 million barrels/day
U.S. Proved Reserves of Crude Oil (2005) 21,757 million barrels
U.S. Crude Oil Production (2005) 5 million barrels/day
U.S. Petroleum Consumption (2005) 21 million barrels/day
U.S. Crude Oil Imports 10 million barrels/day
US Dependence on Net Petroleum Imports 59.8%
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve 690 million barrels (as of 8/07)
Peak Oil
_of_peak_oil_chart.jpg)
The chart above shows three possibilities for world peak oil production and the post-peak production decline.
One way of showing the status of oil production which is widely accepted is the “Peak Oil” scenario.
Oil production rates increase as new oil fields are discovered and operations are simple and relatively inexpensive. As long as new fields are discovered and existing fields continued to produce well, world oil production continued to increase.
Because giant oil fields are easier to find than smaller ones, larger fields are found first. Eventually, the size of newly found oil fields becomes increasingly smaller, fewer fields are found each year and older fields begin to produce less while recovering oil from them becomes more expensive.
At some point, oil production reaches a peak, after which it begins to decline as oil fields become increasingly depleted and fewer are found. Production continues to decline until no oil is left which can be profitably extracted.
The rate of decline after the peak may not mirror the incline before the peak. The date at which we reach world peak and the rate of decline after the peak is what we all want to know and for this there is no simple answer.
Estimating Peak Oil is complicated by the following:
- The amount of oil in the ground is uncertain
- Oil reserve estimates given by different countries are not verified by independent auditors.
- Large areas of the earth are still unexplored.
- How much oil can be produced from hard-to-reach, non-conventional sources
- Significant (possibly 7 trillion barrels) oil exists in oil sands, oil shale and heavy/extra-heavy oils, but extraction of these as well as deep water, offshore oil is complicated by technical, financial and environmental challenges.Political and investment risk affect future exploration and production
- Political and investment risk affect future exploration and production
- Approximately 85% of world proven oil reserves are in countries with medium to high investment risk or where foreign investment is prohibited.
- Environmental restrictions may prevent oil exploration or extraction in some environmentally-sensitive areas.
- Future demand is uncertain
- Future demand depends upon government policies and consumer choices which are difficult to predict.
- Peak timing uncertainty also creates questions about the after-peak decline.
- The rate of decline after peak oil production is affected by all of the problems mentioned above. Although many studies project that the incline and decline will have similar timelines, The U.S. Energy Administration projections show a faster decline. A faster decline would be more disruptive to the US and world economies.
Peak Oil Production
- According to the Hubbert Peak for World Oil, oil in the United States peaked in about 1970. This date is appears to be widely accepted.
- Most estimates of world peak oil vary between 2005 and 2040.
Sources for Oil Information
NATURAL GAS
Provides 23% of total US energy consumption
Natural Gas Basics
World Natural Gas Reserves (2007) 6.182 trillion cubic feet
World Natural Gas Consumption 2003 95 trillion cubic feet
World Natural Gas Consumption 2030 182 trillion cubic feet
US Dry Proved Reserves (2006) 204,385 billion cubic feet
U.S. Annual Natural Gas Production (2006) 18,491 billion cubic feet
U.S. Annual Natural Gas Consumption (2006) 21,860 billion cubic feet
U.S. Annual Imports (2006) 4,187, billion cubic feet
U.S. Annual Exports (2006) 754 billion cubic feet
Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas.
FIGURE energy 2
Natural Gas Summary
As home fuel, natural gas is almost pure methane.
The largest reserves are far from the American market and because of its explosive nature, transportation to the U.S. is difficult. The U.S. currently gets most of its gas from the Gulf States and the Rocky Mountains. Canada exports two-thirds of its gas to the U.S., although Canadians are increasingly unhappy with this situation.
For transport other than by pipeline, the temperature of natural gas must be lowered to the point at which it becomes liquid. Currently only five terminals exist in the U.S. for receiving imported Liquid Natural Gas (LNG). Import deliveries to these terminals soared 29% in 2006 and are expected to increase rapidly in the future.
Although a fair amount of data exists on production, consumption and reserves, little information is available on the peak of natural gas.
COAL
Provides 22% of total US energy consumption
Coal Basics
World Estimated Recoverable Coal (2005) 997,748 million tons
World Annual Coal Consumption (2007) 6,150 million tons
World Annual Coal Consumption (2030) 10,483 million tons
U.S. Estimated Recoverable Coal (2005) 267,554 million tons
U.S. Production (2007) 1,133 million tons
U.S. Consumption table 7 (2007) 1,130 million tons
Environmental Problems from Coal-burning
The main problem with burning coal is that it produces large amount of carbon dioxide, the most important human-produced greenhouse gas.
65% of U.S. coal contains 1.7% or less sulfur content- meaning that it is of relatively high quality- which is important because even though other countries like China have large coal reserves, much of their coal is of low quality.
Countries with rapidly-emerging economies such as China, India and Indonesia also have rapidly-growing needs for pollution-reducing technology, but fewer technical and financial resources to apply to the problem.
Because China alone is expected to build coal-fired power plants at a rate which may approach one every three weeks for the next 25 years, the concerns over air quality and greenhouse gas emissions are viewed as valid across the entire political spectrum.
Coal Gasification
One method of reducing these pollutants is a process called coal gasification. Using heat, pressure and steam, coal is reduced into separate gases. Commercially valuable gases are separated and stored and carbon dioxide and other pollutants can also be separated and dealt with individually.
Coal Summary
27% of the world's reserves are in the United States.
As U.S. and world oil reserves become depleted, coal will become an increasingly important energy source in the U.S. At current production levels, world proven coal reserves are estimated to last close to 200 years. Because the US Energy Information Administration forecasts world coal consumption to rise by 74% and US coal consumption rates to rise 65% from 2004 to 2030, it appears that coal reserves may not last close to 200 years.
How long coal reserves will actually last depends upon future consumption rates and the development rates of new and renewable energy sources. Because of large U.S. reserves, peak coal production is far in the future. Forecasting how long reserves will last with accuracy is virtually impossible.
Sources for More Information
- Energy Information Administration- A branch of the U. S. Dept. of Energy offering statistics, information and links about U.S. and world energy.
- U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) World Petroleum Assessment 2000 Summary – The USGS is responsible for supplying the U.S. government with information on world oil and gas reserves.
- The Oil Drum (website) Discussions of current events relating to energy by a pool of interesting professionals with relevant backgrounds, but not necessarily tied directly to the energy industries. Unique source of information.
- Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) Is a highly regarded international non-profit. ASPO USA ASPO International
- International Energy Agency - The International Energy Agency (IEA) acts as energy policy advisor to 26 Member countries
- World Energy Council- an alliance of over 90 countries which provides information and resources for all aspects of energy.
- How many Does it Take?- energy sources produced from nuclear plants, hydroelectric dams, offshore gas production, onshore gas wells, wave turbines, wave plants, and solar panels, and how much of these many energy resources it takes to power a city of 100,000.
|
